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2011 · strikesapphire.com
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In Spain, there's a betting game called La Quiniela: https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Quiniela_(Espa%C3%B1a) Players predict the outcome of 14 football matches (home win, draw, away win). You win money if you get at least 10 correct, and the prize amount depends on the number of winners. Since all bets are public, the number of winners and the corresponding payouts can be estimated for each of the 3^14 possible outcomes. We can also estimate their probabilities using bookmaker odds, allowing us to compute the expected value for each prediction. As a side project, I wanted…
2025
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