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The science of personal luck

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    Read the Tape gives players the same 5 S&P500 stock charts per day to predict. You select low, medium or high confidence and then call the chart UP or DOWN. It's a 1d chart which then resolves over 5 days. Alpha is scored against the Monkey Index, a basket of 11 random coin flips at low confidence which provides a tangible win/lose condition. We're two weeks in and some interesting data is being kicked up. Players like to call tops even though stonks go up- 60% of the 70 charts so far resolve higher, players' down calls have only been right 31% of the time. There's a full stats dive at…

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    I created a bot which analyses Euro 2024 betting odds and performs some basic analysis based on the recent form of each team and provides advice on which odds are under/over-priced by email to all subscribers. The intelligence of the bot is admittedly rather basic but this simple app shows how easy it is to reliably scrape and parse structured data with AI and perform insightful analysis. The initial version of the bot, shown in the notebook took about 15 minutes to build. Disclosure: this bot is built on our new graph based #nocode platform NodeScript.dev, which we've recently brought…

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  24. 24PG

    I’m Andrew, co-founder of Recall. Over the past few days I’ve been building Predict, a playground where anyone can: - propose skills we should measure in language models—live examples include difficult math, memory-manipulation resistance, code generation, and empathy under bad news - write evals (graded prompts) for those skills - forecast which models will score highest once GPT-5 is released Why this exists Benchmarks leak into training data quickly; scores are unreliable and labs still declare progress. The prediction tool aims keeps the target moving by letting the crowd define both the…

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