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Products that do what Prophex does

Trade outcomes, train intelligence

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  7. 7SO

    Hey HN, I’m Dan. I’ve been working on forecasting for the last six years at Google, then Metaculus, and now at FutureSearch. For a long time, I thought prediction markets, “superforecasting”, and AI forecasting techniques had nothing to say about the stock market. Stock prices already reflect the collective wisdom of investors. The stock market is basically a prediction market already. Recently, though, AI forecasting has gotten competitive with human forecasters. And we’ve found a way of modeling long-term company outcomes that is amenable to our forecasting approach. Iteration by…

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  24. 24AP

    I made a lightweight web game about compute CAPEX tradeoffs: https://darios-dilemma.up.railway.app/ No signup, runs on mobile/desktop. Loop per round: 1. choose compute capacity 2. forecast demand 3. allocate capacity between training and inference 4. random demand shock resolves outcome You can end profitable, cash constrained, or bankrupt depending on allocation + forecast error. Goal was to make the decision surface intuitive in 2–3 minutes per run. It’s a toy model and deliberately omits many real world factors. Note: this is based on what I learned after listening to…

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