BearScout

What it does

BearScout is a free forecasting game: make probability calls on real prediction-market questions, get Brier-scored against the market's ask price at call time, climb a pseudonymous leaderboard. No real money — just find out if your judgment is signal or noise.

Make forecasts on real prediction-market questions, get Brier-scored against the market, and climb the leaderboard. Free to play, no real money — practice calibrated forecasting with BearScout.

What it is. BearScout is a free forecasting game: you make probability forecasts ("calls") on real prediction-market questions, your call is locked, and when the question settles you are scored with a Brier score against the market's ask price at the moment you called . A pseudonymous ladder ranks forecasters by calibration. There is no real money involved — it is deliberate practice for probability judgment, not trading. A Brier score is the squared error between a probability forecast and the outcome (1 if it happened, 0 if not). Forecasting 70% on an event that happens scores (1 − 0.7)² = 0.09; on one that doesn't, 0.49. Lower is better, and always answering 50% scores a flat 0.25.…from trader-bear.com

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