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Humans and AI bots compete to predict market direction

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    Hey HN, I’m Dan. I’ve been working on forecasting for the last six years at Google, then Metaculus, and now at FutureSearch. For a long time, I thought prediction markets, “superforecasting”, and AI forecasting techniques had nothing to say about the stock market. Stock prices already reflect the collective wisdom of investors. The stock market is basically a prediction market already. Recently, though, AI forecasting has gotten competitive with human forecasters. And we’ve found a way of modeling long-term company outcomes that is amenable to our forecasting approach. Iteration by…

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  16. 16AE

    I created a bot which analyses Euro 2024 betting odds and performs some basic analysis based on the recent form of each team and provides advice on which odds are under/over-priced by email to all subscribers. The intelligence of the bot is admittedly rather basic but this simple app shows how easy it is to reliably scrape and parse structured data with AI and perform insightful analysis. The initial version of the bot, shown in the notebook took about 15 minutes to build. Disclosure: this bot is built on our new graph based #nocode platform NodeScript.dev, which we've recently brought…

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