Predictionary
Let’s see who can predict the future.
What it does
The reputation-weighted memory of human & AI predictions. Predictionary is a public ledger of human & AI forecasts. Every prediction is structured, time-bound, and transparently resolved. Accuracy compounds into reputation over time. We track individuals, public figures, and AI models to see who consistently gets it right. Stop arguing about unknowns. Make a prediction. When it resolves, the record speaks for itself.
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- PGPredict GPT-5 skills with a community AI benchmark2025 · ▲13
I’m Andrew, co-founder of Recall. Over the past few days I’ve been building Predict, a playground where anyone can: - propose skills we should measure in language models—live examples include difficult math, memory-manipulation resistance, code generation, and empathy under bad news - write evals (graded prompts) for those skills - forecast which models will score highest once GPT-5 is released Why this exists Benchmarks leak into training data quickly; scores are unreliable and labs still declare progress. The prediction tool aims keeps the target moving by letting the crowd define both the…
- ALAsk LLMs to predict anything based on news2024 · aipredict.fun · ▲25
Hi HN! We partnered with the Atlas team to build a tool called AI Predict [0] that allows anyone to ask any question about the future and get a thoroughly researched, AI-generated prediction on how likely it is to be true. How it works: Atlas replicated a Berkeley paper [1] that showed LLMs could make predictions as accurate as the crowd. We’re using a mix of models from OpenAI and Anthropic, with information retrieval powered by NewsCatcher [2]. The system is live and fully functional, though it might struggle with hyper-local questions outside of the public domain (e.g., “Will I have…
- FAFutureSearch, AI forecasting you can verifyAug 2026 · futuresearch.ai · ▲11
*Title:* Show HN: FutureSearch, AI forecasting you can verify AI forecasting is now approximately superhuman. Today, FutureSearch is exiting our long public beta and launching. We started FutureSearch in August 2023. (We’re the original AI forecasting company, at least in a Tetlock-ian, “forecast anything” sense.) We’re currently #1 of 194 in the most competitive AI forecasting tournament [1], and we score above the #3 and #2 human forecasters in the premier mixed human-bot tournaments [2]. Many people on HN seem to equate forecasting with prediction markets and finance. FutureSearch is not…
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I trained a 125M-parameter transformer to autocomplete piano performances in real time (~108 notes/sec on an iPhone 15). The idea is basically GitHub Copilot or Tabnine, except instead of prompting it with code, you prompt it by playing a few notes on a MIDI piano. The model then continues what you played, entirely on-device. The app is free if anyone wants to try it. Happy to answer questions about the model, training, Core ML, or the many things that didn't work.
AI · 17d ago · simedw.com
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AI · 18d ago · company-app.joinastute.com
Hey HN, Henry from Cactus here! We previously released Cactus Needle, a 14MB agentic LLM for tool call, device use, and structured extraction for phones, wearables, smart homes, small robots and microcontrollers. We got really great feedback here, and have now incorporated the suggestions to release Needle 2. The whole model is a single 14MB binary that runs a full session in 28MB of RAM; 45m parameters at 2bit compression. Needle hits 500 tokens/sec decode speed on a Raspberry Pi 5, sits between 400-1,500 tokens/sec on VR devices like Meta Quest 3S and Apple Vision Pro, and ranges…
AI · 27d ago · cactuscompute.com
