Ask LLMs to predict anything based on news
Hi HN! We partnered with the Atlas team to build a tool called AI Predict [0] that allows anyone to ask any question about the future and get a thoroughly researched, AI-generated prediction on how likely it is to be true. How it works: Atlas replicated a Berkeley paper [1] that showed LLMs could make predictions as accurate as the crowd. We’re using a mix of models from OpenAI and Anthropic, with information retrieval powered by NewsCatcher [2]. The system is live and fully functional, though it might struggle with hyper-local questions outside of the public domain (e.g., “Will I have…
In plain words
AI Predict is a free tool that generates predictions about future events based on user questions. It uses language models from OpenAI and Anthropic combined with news data retrieval to estimate the likelihood of outcomes. The system was developed in partnership with Atlas and is based on research showing that LLMs can make predictions comparable to crowd forecasting. It handles broad questions about societal trends and specific scenarios, though it may struggle with highly localized or private matters outside public information.
written from the facts on this page · September 2026
From the sources
In the maker’s words, at launch
Hi HN! We partnered with the Atlas team to build a tool called AI Predict [0] that allows anyone to ask any question about the future and get a thoroughly researched, AI-generated prediction on how likely it is to be true. How it works: Atlas replicated a Berkeley paper [1] that showed LLMs could make predictions as accurate as the crowd. We’re using a mix of models from OpenAI and Anthropic, with information retrieval powered by NewsCatcher [2]. The system is live and fully functional, though it might struggle with hyper-local questions outside of the public domain (e.g., “Will I have chicken for dinner tonight?“). But we’re intentionally NOT stopping it from answering any question, so fire away! What makes it different: - Free to use: Anyone can ask any question about the future that they care about, whether it’s a broad societal trend or a specific personal decision. - Transparent: The tool is based on a proven reasoning model and provides links to all sources. You can see its track record on public predictions [3]. - Open-source: We’ve released a simplified open-source version [4] to give people a better sense of how it works. Why we built this: We’re forecasting nerds and loved the idea behind the Berkeley paper. Friends and family kept asking us to make predictions for them, so we figured we’d build a frontend around the system so they could use it themselves. Don’t use it to decide where to buy a house or anything serious. But we think it’s a good starting place when doing research. AI Predict tackles prediction questions using transparent, objective reasoning (mostly Bayesian analysis) and links to all its news sources. We’d love for the HN community to try it out and share feedback ([email protected]). Let us know what you think! [0] https://aipredict.fun/ [1] https://arxiv.org/pdf/2402.18563 [2] https://www.newscatcherapi.com/ [3] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oPvWlst7sxq2URifFaZ0... [4] https://github.com/getdatachimp/llm-superforecaster
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