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Dev tools · April 1, 2020

C1

Covid-19 Projections, Simple Logistic and Exponential Models

Hello, HN! There have been a lot of COVID-19 from various sites, but a common complaint is that simple things like log-scaling population counts are are infrequently done. So I decided to do it: https://covid19.fernandes.org/ I've aggregated the JHU (per Country) and NYT (select US states) data and plotted them under two models: simple exponential growth and simple logistic growth. The plots are updated as the JHU and NYT data is updated (thanks, GitHub actions!). A big challenge has been the writeup because the exponential model implies horrific things, but the logistic model…

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What it does

In the maker’s words, at launch

Hello, HN! There have been a lot of COVID-19 from various sites, but a common complaint is that simple things like log-scaling population counts are are infrequently done. So I decided to do it: https://covid19.fernandes.org/ I've aggregated the JHU (per Country) and NYT (select US states) data and plotted them under two models: simple exponential growth and simple logistic growth. The plots are updated as the JHU and NYT data is updated (thanks, GitHub actions!). A big challenge has been the writeup because the exponential model implies horrific things, but the logistic model seems... well, perhaps overly optimistic, probably due to the lack of solid testing data. So it's really difficult for the layperson (and even many experts!) to interpret. Anyway, comments and constructive critique are welcome, especially suggestions on how and what to say on the "copy" to help "ordinary people" understand and interpret the plots.

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