Financial Gurkha

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Independent equity valuations, earnings analysis and macro research read straight from SEC filings. Written from Wall Street and Lower Manhattan, New York City. Est. 2022.

Equity valuations, macro analysis, and market coverage — researched, written, and filed from Wall Street, New York. ML-LiqVaR combines GARCH volatility modelling, Extreme Value Theory and gradient-boosted quantile regression to forecast one-day-ahead Value-at-Risk on US equities. Across 8,072 out-of-sample observations from eight S&P 500 constituents between 2018 and 2024, it delivered the closest 99% calibration and the lowest average pinball loss of five models tested — but its improvement over GARCH-EVT was not statistically significant at the 5% level. This is what the paper found, what it did not find, and why the second half matters as much as the first. A full read of the US crude…from financialgurkha.com

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