Mondael.com – Institutional Intelligence for Prediction Markets
This project grew out of frustration of trying to find out the odds of a Hantavirus pandemic. When I went to search for it, I had to wade through sports gambling, and novelty markets that distracted me from just getting a really useful number with context to know if it was accurate. To solve this, my friend and I made mondael.com, which we're using to analyze, and visualize interesting prediction markets in the realm of: Geopolitics, Elections, Macro, Finance, Energy, and Science & Technology. The basic belief is that prediction markets can often move faster than news, but only if the data…
What it does
In the maker’s words, at launch
This project grew out of frustration of trying to find out the odds of a Hantavirus pandemic. When I went to search for it, I had to wade through sports gambling, and novelty markets that distracted me from just getting a really useful number with context to know if it was accurate. To solve this, my friend and I made mondael.com, which we're using to analyze, and visualize interesting prediction markets in the realm of: Geopolitics, Elections, Macro, Finance, Energy, and Science & Technology. The basic belief is that prediction markets can often move faster than news, but only if the data is filtered, organized, and presented in a way that separates real signal from noise. The site is free and open for all to explore. Once we had the core database working, we started adding tools around it: - Live Brier scoring: track how accurate markets are across desks, tags, and topics. - Cross-asset correlations: compare prediction markets with real-world assets like stocks, FX, commodities, and ETFs, including lead/lag analysis. - Market structure analysis: use bubble charts to compare liquidity, volume, order-book depth, 5pp depth, spreads, and related measures. - Alerts: surface events like volume bumps, leader changes, price spikes, and other unusual market activity. Any feedback is appreciated and will be considered.
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