Create your own prediction market in two minutes
Hi HN! Excited to show off the project we've been working on for the last couple months. We started with an idea for a crazy twist on prediction markets: You come up with a question for traders to predict, and then decide the outcome yourself. For example, you could create a market on “Will my date with [X] go well?” Anyone can bet on it, and the bets create a forecast on the chance your date goes well. After the date is over, you get to judge the result and reward the traders who picked the correct side. There are so many ways for this mechanism to go wrong: the creator of the market can be…
Create your own prediction market in two minutes launched on February 9, 2022 with 84 votes, #476 of 2,645 launches that month and more than 90% of that year's launches. The site was still online in September 2026, 4 years on.
In plain words
Manifold Markets is a platform for creating prediction markets on any question in minutes. Users pose questions, set the terms, and other traders place bets on potential outcomes. The creator then judges the final result and distributes winnings to correct predictors. This approach enables personal forecasting on everyday events like dates or project outcomes, leveraging crowd predictions to quantify uncertainty. The platform is designed for anyone interested in betting on uncertain events and seeing crowdsourced probability estimates.
written from the facts on this page · September 2026
From the sources
Manifold is a social prediction game. Bet on news, politics, tech, & AI with play money. Or create your own prediction market.
In the maker’s words, at launch
Hi HN! Excited to show off the project we've been working on for the last couple months. We started with an idea for a crazy twist on prediction markets: You come up with a question for traders to predict, and then decide the outcome yourself. For example, you could create a market on “Will my date with [X] go well?”…
Does a similar job
all alternatives →
PredictionHunt – Compare probabilities across prediction markets2025 · predictionhunt.com · ▲12Hey HN - my friend and I built Prediction Hunt, a site that aggregates data from prediction markets like Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt into one simple dashboard. It updates every few minutes, shows probabilities for each event, and even highlights arbitrage opportunities when markets disagree. I made it after getting tired of flipping between tabs just to see how each market was pricing the same question. Would love feedback on the product, data accuracy, and any ideas for what you'd want to see next.
- ETExploring the intersection of prediction markets and social mediaSep 2026 · thevidmarket.com · ▲16
More work this month
the category →
Endless lofi beats composed live in your browser, over pixel-art nights in Paris, Tokyo, New York, Hong Kong, Sydney, San Francisco and more. Free, no sign-up.
Work · 26d ago · loficities.com
Smooth Recorder▲257Mac screen recordings that look edited when you hit stop
Work · 20d ago · smoothrecorder.com
Work · 14d ago · readrare.com
Source: Show HN post ↗ · launch text quoted in part
Launched alongside, February 2022
the whole month →
Sha256 algorithm explained online step by step visually
Life & fun · 2022 · sha256algorithm.com
EdgeDB 1.0▲947Today, after years of research, development, and refinement EdgeDB graduates to a production-ready database. We are very proud to announce EdgeDB 1.0.
Dev tools · 2022 · edgedb.com
