NegativeEV – I built a tool to help people see how bad their bets are

What it does

NegativeEV is the first tool built to surface the bad bets. Most bets are bad bets, and people know it, but they always think theirs is one of the good ones. They're wrong. Check before you place it and see if the data backs it up. It usually doesn't. Free.

Paste a bet and NegativeEV checks it against thousands of simulated games to tell you whether the price is good, bad, or fair. No. It grades bets that are brought to it. There is no pick list, no play of the day, and no scan of the board for value — a bet has to be pasted in before there is anything to say about it. Nothing. Ten checks a day without an account; signing in removes the daily cap and replaces it with a per-hour pace limit. Every check runs the actual game thousands of times, play by play, and counts how often the bet would have won. That simulated win rate is compared with the probability the sportsbook's price implies. When the book's number is the higher one, the price is…from negativeev.com

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