Open-source LLM and dataset for sports forecasting (Pro Golf)
Hey HN, I fine-tuned a small open-source model on golf forecasting and it beats GPT-5 at predicting golf outcomes. The same approach can be used to build a specialized model in any domain, you just need to update a few search queries. We fine-tuned gpt-oss-120b with LoRA on 3,178 golf forecasting questions, using GRPO with Brier score as the reward. Our model outperformed GPT-5 on Brier Skill (17% vs 12.8%) and ECE (6% vs 10.6%) on 855 held-out questions. How to try it: the model and dataset are open-source, with code, on Hugging Face. How to build your own specialized model: Update the…
Open-source LLM and dataset for sports forecasting (Pro Golf) launched on February 24, 2026 with 7 votes, #1,385 of 16,627 launches that month and more than 75% of that year's launches.
What it does
We’re on a journey to advance and democratize artificial intelligence through open source and open science.
Starting from nothing but 9 search queries, we used the Lightning Rod SDK to automatically generate 3,178 forecasting questions from news articles, label them using real outcomes, and train this model via RL. No expertise required. No manual labeling. No domain-specific engineering. The result beats GPT-5 on held-out questions. You can do this in any domain — just change the search queries. See how we built the dataset . This repo contains a LoRA adapter for gpt-oss-120b . A standalone merge.py script is included to merge it into a full model. Evaluated on 855 held-out test questions (temporal split, Aug 2025+). Brier Score : Mean squared error between predicted probability and outcome.…from huggingface.co
In the maker’s words, at launch
Hey HN, I fine-tuned a small open-source model on golf forecasting and it beats GPT-5 at predicting golf outcomes. The same approach can be used to build a specialized model in any domain, you just need to update a few search queries. We fine-tuned gpt-oss-120b with LoRA on 3,178 golf forecasting questions, using…
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