Will This Happen

What it does

We're living in a crazy, you might say uncertain, time. It is almost impossible to know what is going to happen next in the world of politics. Will This Happen uses AI to combine a wide range of factors, to build a picture of how probability is changing.

WillThisHappen answers “will it happen?” for thousands of real-world questions — elections, the economy, AI, crypto, science and more — as a live, market-implied probability sourced from prediction markets, tracked over time, and available as a clean API for analysts and AI agents.

Every important question about the future — elections, the economy, AI, crypto, science — answered as a live probability the market actually believes. Sourced from real prediction markets, tracked over time, and ready for your models and agents. Every probability is a real market price sourced live from Polymarket — nothing modelled, nothing fabricated. Snapshot updated Sep 17, 2026 . The most actively traded questions right now — the future, priced in real time. Thousands of people stake real money on what happens next. That collective bet becomes a single, calibrated probability — far harder to fool than a pundit or a poll. We pull those live prices, sort them into clean topics, phrase…from willthishappen.com

• TP
  The Probability Times2024 · theprobabilitytimes.com · ▲20

  Hey HN! The idea for this started when I came across the election forecast of FiveThirthyEight [1]. They show a 1000 different possible election outcomes - each one possible. In this newspaper homepage, I try to turn these simulations into reality by feeding AI with as much detailed information about a simulation as I can (e.g. voting results per state). See source code here [2]. The whole process is explained in more depth in my blog post: https://nerology.substack.com/p/how-i-made-the-probability-t... [1]…

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• AL
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  Hi HN! We partnered with the Atlas team to build a tool called AI Predict [0] that allows anyone to ask any question about the future and get a thoroughly researched, AI-generated prediction on how likely it is to be true. How it works: Atlas replicated a Berkeley paper [1] that showed LLMs could make predictions as accurate as the crowd. We’re using a mix of models from OpenAI and Anthropic, with information retrieval powered by NewsCatcher [2]. The system is live and fully functional, though it might struggle with hyper-local questions outside of the public domain (e.g., “Will I have…

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