Alternatives
Products that do what Calculated does
"bet doesn't include greed.it include oppinion"
- 1
Read the Tape gives players the same 5 S&P500 stock charts per day to predict. You select low, medium or high confidence and then call the chart UP or DOWN. It's a 1d chart which then resolves over 5 days. Alpha is scored against the Monkey Index, a basket of 11 random coin flips at low confidence which provides a tangible win/lose condition. We're two weeks in and some interesting data is being kicked up. Players like to call tops even though stonks go up- 60% of the 70 charts so far resolve higher, players' down calls have only been right 31% of the time. There's a full stats dive at…
Jul 2026 · readthetape.cc
- 2CY
Hi HN! Excited to show off the project we've been working on for the last couple months. We started with an idea for a crazy twist on prediction markets: You come up with a question for traders to predict, and then decide the outcome yourself. For example, you could create a market on “Will my date with [X] go well?” Anyone can bet on it, and the bets create a forecast on the chance your date goes well. After the date is over, you get to judge the result and reward the traders who picked the correct side. There are so many ways for this mechanism to go wrong: the creator of the market can be…
2022 · manifold.markets
- 3
- 4
- 5
- 6
- 7
- 8
- 9
- 10
- 11
- 12BM
2024 · app.betron.io
- 13
AI-powered sports betting data and expected-value analysis
Jul 2026 · aigamingpredictions.com
- 14QO
Hi HN, A while ago I had a mildly depressing realization. Back in 2010, I had around $60k. Like a "responsible" person, I used it as a down payment on an apartment. Recently, out of curiosity, I calculated what would have happened if I had instead put that money into NVIDIA stock. I should probably add some context. For over 10 years I've worked as a developer on trading platforms and financial infrastructure. I made a rule for myself - never trade on the market. In 2015, when Bitcoin traded about 300 usd, my brother and I were talking about whether it was a bubble. He made a bold claim that…
Feb 2026 · shouldhavebought.com
- 15
- 16
- 17
- 18SO
Hey HN, I’m Dan. I’ve been working on forecasting for the last six years at Google, then Metaculus, and now at FutureSearch. For a long time, I thought prediction markets, “superforecasting”, and AI forecasting techniques had nothing to say about the stock market. Stock prices already reflect the collective wisdom of investors. The stock market is basically a prediction market already. Recently, though, AI forecasting has gotten competitive with human forecasters. And we’ve found a way of modeling long-term company outcomes that is amenable to our forecasting approach. Iteration by…
Nov 2025
- 19
- 20
- 21
- 22
- 23PC
Hey HN - my friend and I built Prediction Hunt, a site that aggregates data from prediction markets like Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt into one simple dashboard. It updates every few minutes, shows probabilities for each event, and even highlights arbitrage opportunities when markets disagree. I made it after getting tired of flipping between tabs just to see how each market was pricing the same question. Would love feedback on the product, data accuracy, and any ideas for what you'd want to see next.
Oct 2025 · predictionhunt.com
- 24PM
Hey HN, I have been working on using the info-gathering and truth-seeking properties of the markets to get more honest reporting on all sort of things. The idea is to have a market game where people can wager a fake currency on what think is true and then, the citizen reviews the crowd-sourced information and makes a judgement about which position has the best case. It is crowd-sourced journalism with a market game. Please let me know what you think and my email is [email protected], if you have any questions.
Sep 2025 · thecitizen.io
Ranked by how close each launch is in meaning, then by votes. Refine with a description →