24casts
Prediction Market Intelligence API
What it does
Our model simulates prediction market probabilities as a jump diffusion process blending gradual drifts from market consensus, sudden jumps from breaking news, and time decay toward resolution, then layers in AI-driven priors, liquidity adjustments, and regime-specific risks to pinpoint fair values, edges, and optimal position sizing, turning noisy event contracts into probabilistic alpha.
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- CYCreate your own prediction market in two minutes2022 · manifold.markets · ▲84
Hi HN! Excited to show off the project we've been working on for the last couple months. We started with an idea for a crazy twist on prediction markets: You come up with a question for traders to predict, and then decide the outcome yourself. For example, you could create a market on “Will my date with [X] go well?” Anyone can bet on it, and the bets create a forecast on the chance your date goes well. After the date is over, you get to judge the result and reward the traders who picked the correct side. There are so many ways for this mechanism to go wrong: the creator of the market can be…
AI Prediction Market PlatformJul 2026 · firebeetechnoservices.com · ▲4AI Prediction Market Built for Real-Time Consensus
PredictAlphaJun 2026 · predictalpha.app · ▲2AI ensemble predictions for BTC, ETH & Gold — Live signals
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Hey HN, Henry from Cactus here! We previously released Cactus Needle, a 14MB agentic LLM for tool call, device use, and structured extraction for phones, wearables, smart homes, small robots and microcontrollers. We got really great feedback here, and have now incorporated the suggestions to release Needle 2. The whole model is a single 14MB binary that runs a full session in 28MB of RAM; 45m parameters at 2bit compression. Needle hits 500 tokens/sec decode speed on a Raspberry Pi 5, sits between 400-1,500 tokens/sec on VR devices like Meta Quest 3S and Apple Vision Pro, and ranges…
AI · 27d ago · cactuscompute.com
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Hey HN! I wanted to share something I built over the last few weeks: isometric.nyc is a massive isometric pixel art map of NYC, built with nano banana and coding agents. I didn't write a single line of code. Of course no-code doesn't mean no-engineering. This project took a lot more manual labor than I'd hoped! I wrote a deep dive on the workflow and some thoughts about the future of AI coding and creativity: http://cannoneyed.com/projects/isometric-nyc
AI · Jan 2026 · cannoneyed.com
Automatic AI-powered code reviews the moment you open a PR
Dev tools · Jan 2026 · kilo.ai
