Betting game puzzle (Hamming neighbor sum in linear time)
In Spain, there's a betting game called La Quiniela: https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Quiniela_(Espa%C3%B1a) Players predict the outcome of 14 football matches (home win, draw, away win). You win money if you get at least 10 correct, and the prize amount depends on the number of winners. Since all bets are public, the number of winners and the corresponding payouts can be estimated for each of the 3^14 possible outcomes. We can also estimate their probabilities using bookmaker odds, allowing us to compute the expected value for each prediction. As a side project, I wanted…
Betting game puzzle (Hamming neighbor sum in linear time) launched on February 28, 2025 with 56 votes, #469 of 5,999 launches that month and more than 90% of that year's launches.
In plain words
This tool analyzes Spain's La Quiniela betting game, where players predict outcomes of 14 football matches to win prizes. It calculates expected value for each possible prediction by estimating winner counts and payouts from public bet data, combined with bookmaker odds. The software addresses a computational challenge: efficiently summing values across thousands of similar predictions (Hamming neighbors) to enable rapid evaluation of betting strategies.
written from the facts on this page · September 2026
From the sources
In the maker’s words, at launch
In Spain, there's a betting game called La Quiniela: https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Quiniela_(Espa%C3%B1a) Players predict the outcome of 14 football matches (home win, draw, away win). You win money if you get at least 10 correct, and the prize amount depends on the number of winners. Since all…
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