Causalea
Making Hard Decisions Under Uncertainty
What it does
Most trading tools tell you to buy. KELLY tells you what it actually believes, shows its work, and grades itself in public. A live causal engine that treats WAIT and 'I don't know' as real answers, pre-registers every decision with a sha256 hash, then scores it against reality. The Open Track Record publishes misses next to hits, and the edge stays hidden until it clears chance. Verify the receipts yourself. Free tier, no card. Not financial advice.
Does the same job
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Hi HN, I'm a solo dev and for the last few months I've been building Hikaro, a tool to find statistically significant trading signals for [e.g., US equities, crypto, forex]. I built this to solve my own problem: I was tired of backtests that looked great on paper but failed in practice. Simple metrics like "win rate" can be misleading, so I wanted a way to quickly tell if a signal's performance was genuine or just noise. Hikaro ingests daily market data and runs statistical analysis on various trading signals. The goal is to surface signals with strong properties, like: Low p-value: Evidence…
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