Freakonomics: How to Make a Bad Decision

What it does

How to Make a Bad Decision - Freakonomics

Some of our most important decisions are shaped by something as random as the order in which we make them. The gambler’s fallacy, as it’s known, affects loan officers, federal judges — and probably you, too. How to avoid it? The first step is to admit just how fallible we all are. Let’s say I flip a coin and it comes up … heads. Now, I flip it again … hmm, heads again. One more time … and … wow, that’s three heads in a row. O.K., if I were to flip the coin one more time, what are you predicting? Here’s what a lot of people would predict: “Let’s see, heads-heads-heads … it’s gotta come up tails this time.” Even though you know a coin toss is a random event, and that each flip is…from freakonomics.com

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