I built a 2-min quiz that shows you how bad you are at estimating
I've gotten to the point in my career where I now make strategic decisions often (hiring, firing, choosing what equipment to go with, etc.), as well as in my personal life where I need to strongly weigh my options for a big purchase or investment. I found a not-so-surprising parallel between the two as these decisions "resolved." Am I making good decisions or am I getting lucky? Did some research, read some books, and realized I should get in the habit of tracking my decision process. That quickly turned into the idea that formed Convexly. The landing page is a 10-question calibration quiz…
I built a 2-min quiz that shows you how bad you are at estimating launched on April 6, 2026 with 20 votes, #1,003 of 21,248 launches that month and more than 90% of that year's launches.
In plain words
Convexly offers a two-minute calibration quiz that measures how well users estimate confidence in their predictions. Users answer ten questions by assigning confidence levels to statements and receive a Brier score showing their calibration accuracy. The tool is designed for people making strategic decisions in work and personal contexts who want to track and improve their decision-making process. No signup is required to take the quiz, though users can create a free account to track their scores over time.
written from the facts on this page · September 2026
From the sources
Every prediction market ranks traders by profit, but over a few dozen bets, profit is mostly luck. Convexly is an independent skill-vs-luck audit for Polymarket wallets. Paste any wallet address and in about 30 seconds get its realized edge with a 95% confidence interval, calibration by market category (Brier score), and an Edge Score against a frozen 8,656-wallet reference cohort. Free, no signup. Frozen methods, public data, and negative results that stay published.
Polymarket prices, rules and collected resolution records, with wallet research tools alongside. No venue buys coverage.
Track the price. Read the rules. Check the wallets behind the trades. Inspect a Polymarket wallet's past results and the coverage behind its score. Your first check is free. Edge Score is a composite of calibration, conviction, and discipline against a frozen 8,656-wallet reference cohort. It describes the past record, not a forecast. Browse prices and categories. Save markets to revisit on this browser. See how past returns compare with the historical Edge Score. Check the coverage on each wallet. Open a market’s rules and the resolution evidence we have collected. Our methods, collection limits and failed tests are public. No venue buys a rating. 31 of the 42 wallets on today's public…from convexly.app
In the maker’s words, at launch
I've gotten to the point in my career where I now make strategic decisions often (hiring, firing, choosing what equipment to go with, etc.), as well as in my personal life where I need to strongly weigh my options for a big purchase or investment. I found a not-so-surprising parallel between the two as these…
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Source: Show HN post ↗ · launch text quoted in part
Launched alongside, April 2026
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