Prognix
AI models predict the future. Only one consensus survives
What it does
Prognix pits frontier AI models against each other to forecast real-world events - then computes one consensus probability using extremization techniques from forecasting research. Every prediction includes full chain-of-thought reasoning, so you see why each model chose its number. Models are scored with Brier scores against reality on a live leaderboard. 1000+ active questions across geopolitics, tech, crypto, climate, and more - refreshed daily. Vote and see if you beat the machines.
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ForecastLabsMay 2026 · forecastlabs.ai · ▲13Skill-based sports prediction platform with AI coaching.
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Hi HN! We partnered with the Atlas team to build a tool called AI Predict [0] that allows anyone to ask any question about the future and get a thoroughly researched, AI-generated prediction on how likely it is to be true. How it works: Atlas replicated a Berkeley paper [1] that showed LLMs could make predictions as accurate as the crowd. We’re using a mix of models from OpenAI and Anthropic, with information retrieval powered by NewsCatcher [2]. The system is live and fully functional, though it might struggle with hyper-local questions outside of the public domain (e.g., “Will I have…
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Hi HN. I'm Ken, a 20-year-old Stanford CS student. I built Sup AI. I started working on this because no single AI model is right all the time, but their errors don’t strongly correlate. In other words, models often make unique mistakes relative to other models. So I run multiple models in parallel and synthesize the outputs by weighting segments based on confidence. Low entropy in the output token probability distributions correlates with accuracy. High entropy is often where hallucinations begin. My dad Scott (AI Research Scientist at TRI) is my research partner on this. He sends me papers…
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*Title:* Show HN: FutureSearch, AI forecasting you can verify AI forecasting is now approximately superhuman. Today, FutureSearch is exiting our long public beta and launching. We started FutureSearch in August 2023. (We’re the original AI forecasting company, at least in a Tetlock-ian, “forecast anything” sense.) We’re currently #1 of 194 in the most competitive AI forecasting tournament [1], and we score above the #3 and #2 human forecasters in the premier mixed human-bot tournaments [2]. Many people on HN seem to equate forecasting with prediction markets and finance. FutureSearch is not…
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I trained a 125M-parameter transformer to autocomplete piano performances in real time (~108 notes/sec on an iPhone 15). The idea is basically GitHub Copilot or Tabnine, except instead of prompting it with code, you prompt it by playing a few notes on a MIDI piano. The model then continues what you played, entirely on-device. The app is free if anyone wants to try it. Happy to answer questions about the model, training, Core ML, or the many things that didn't work.
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Hey HN, Henry from Cactus here! We previously released Cactus Needle, a 14MB agentic LLM for tool call, device use, and structured extraction for phones, wearables, smart homes, small robots and microcontrollers. We got really great feedback here, and have now incorporated the suggestions to release Needle 2. The whole model is a single 14MB binary that runs a full session in 28MB of RAM; 45m parameters at 2bit compression. Needle hits 500 tokens/sec decode speed on a Raspberry Pi 5, sits between 400-1,500 tokens/sec on VR devices like Meta Quest 3S and Apple Vision Pro, and ranges…
AI · 27d ago · cactuscompute.com
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Life & fun · Apr 2026 · jaso1024.com
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Built a ~9M param LLM from scratch to understand how they actually work. Vanilla transformer, 60K synthetic conversations, ~130 lines of PyTorch. Trains in 5 min on a free Colab T4. The fish thinks the meaning of life is food. Fork it and swap the personality for your own character.
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Life & fun · Apr 2026 · sam-burns.com
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With social media and now AI, its important to keep the indie web alive. There are many people who write frequently. Blogosphere tries to highlight them by fetching the recent posts from personal blogs across many categories. There are two versions: Minimal (HN-inspired, fast, static): https://text.blogosphere.app/ Non-minimal: https://blogosphere.app/ If you don't find your blog (or your favorite ones), please add them. I will review and approve it.
AI · Apr 2026 · text.blogosphere.app