Ranking weather models by how their forecasts turned out
Weather apps all claim to be accurate but never show their work. So I built a scoreboard that checks: it takes the forecasts each model published (ECMWF, GFS, ICON, AIFS and others, plus Apple Weather, Foreca, OpenWeather and Visual Crossing), waits for the weather to happen, and scores temperature, wind and rain against observations. A few things that surprised me: - AIFS performs very well, yet almost no commercial apps give you access to it or uses it in their blend (I suspect some do without disclosing it tho) - Foreca scores surprisingly well compared to other apps and raw models - ICON…
Ranking weather models by how their forecasts turned out launched on August 6, 2026 with 7 votes, #1,411 of 23,274 launches that month and more than 75% of that year's launches.
What it does
Which weather model is most accurate in Amsterdam? Apple Weather leads at 76/100 over the last 30 days — IFS, AIFS, GFS and ICON scored against the same observed series (temp, rain, wind, every lead time).
This scoreboard fetches and scores live data in your browser, so it needsfrom nickleenders.github.io
In the maker’s words, at launch
Weather apps all claim to be accurate but never show their work. So I built a scoreboard that checks: it takes the forecasts each model published (ECMWF, GFS, ICON, AIFS and others, plus Apple Weather, Foreca, OpenWeather and Visual Crossing), waits for the weather to happen, and scores temperature, wind and rain…
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