Release Oracle

What it does

We apply statistical analysis to prediction market data to predict the date of an AI model release and the confidence interval. Users get notified before a release and the day off so they can stay up to date! I built this for myself because I'm curious when the next model will be released then had some friends start using it.

The next Kimi K model is the next major AI model expected, around Sep 22, 2026. Release Oracle tracks 16 models with market-implied release dates, uncertainty windows, and daily forecast history.

Prediction markets currently put the next Kimi K model release around Sep 22, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Sep 17, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026. Markets imply a 71% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 94% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $12K of traded volume. Open any model for its probability curve, deadline evidence, and recorded forecast history. Machine-readable copies live at /llms.txt , /api/forecasts , and /feed.xml . Prediction markets currently put the next Kimi K model release around Sep 22, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Sep 17, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026. Markets imply a 71% chance of landing within a week of that date, and…from releaseoracle.xyz

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