Release Oracle
AI model release date prediction
What it does
We apply statistical analysis to prediction market data to predict the date of an AI model release and the confidence interval. Users get notified before a release and the day off so they can stay up to date! I built this for myself because I'm curious when the next model will be released then had some friends start using it.
The next Kimi K model is the next major AI model expected, around Sep 22, 2026. Release Oracle tracks 16 models with market-implied release dates, uncertainty windows, and daily forecast history.
Prediction markets currently put the next Kimi K model release around Sep 22, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Sep 17, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026. Markets imply a 71% chance of landing within a week of that date, and 94% within a month. The estimate is based on 3 active deadline contracts with $12K of traded volume. Open any model for its probability curve, deadline evidence, and recorded forecast history. Machine-readable copies live at /llms.txt , /api/forecasts , and /feed.xml . Prediction markets currently put the next Kimi K model release around Sep 22, 2026, with a middle-50% window from Sep 17, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026. Markets imply a 71% chance of landing within a week of that date, and…from releaseoracle.xyz
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