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Life & fun · July 10, 2012

PT

Predicting the winner of the US Presidential Election

In 2008, I did some calculations to estimate the probability of Obama or McCain winning the election, using state poll results, and plotted the probabilities vs time, right up to the election. The results were quite interesting. So, this year, I'm doing the same for the 2012 elections, and have put it all up on: http://prespredict.com I include both 2012 and 2008 results, and make an attempt to see how they correlate with campaign events and national news stories. There is also a section where I describe the methodology. Let me know what you think [P.S. I used bootstrap to get the site up…

Predicting the winner of the US Presidential Election launched on July 10, 2012 with 7 votes, #98 of 375 launches that month and more than 50% of that year's launches.

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What it does

In the maker’s words, at launch

In 2008, I did some calculations to estimate the probability of Obama or McCain winning the election, using state poll results, and plotted the probabilities vs time, right up to the election. The results were quite interesting. So, this year, I'm doing the same for the 2012 elections, and have put it all up on…

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