Alternatives
Products that do what Predicting the winner of the US Presidential Election does
In 2008, I did some calculations to estimate the probability of Obama or McCain winning the election, using state poll results, and plotted the probabilities vs time, right up to the election. The results were quite interesting. So, this year, I'm doing the same for the 2012 elections, and have put it all up on: http://prespredict.com I include both 2012 and 2008 results, and make an attempt to see how they correlate with campaign events and national news stories. There is also a section where I describe the methodology. Let me know what you think [P.S. I used bootstrap to get the site up…
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Hey HN! The idea for this started when I came across the election forecast of FiveThirthyEight [1]. They show a 1000 different possible election outcomes - each one possible. In this newspaper homepage, I try to turn these simulations into reality by feeding AI with as much detailed information about a simulation as I can (e.g. voting results per state). See source code here [2]. The whole process is explained in more depth in my blog post: https://nerology.substack.com/p/how-i-made-the-probability-t... [1]…
2024 · theprobabilitytimes.com
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A quick weekend side project. I am curious if the like count of a candidate for office can predict if they will win. For the past month or so I have been tracking the likes of several campaigns. Today I put a prettier face on it. http://cmpgns.net/ After the election I will do a quick analysis of the races and see if anything interesting turns up. If anyone adds a candidate I'm missing, I'll go in and add their opponent
2010
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2022 · lafrance.enchiffres.fr
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Hi HN! I made a live presidential polling website with real-time electoral results. Votes can be changed at any time until the poll closes. Only visitors from the USA can participate. Congressional district is detected automatically. The idea is to enable a coordinated voting process, where selections are non-binding and negotiable rather than blindly cast once. Kind of like a presidential caucus, but national and over the Internet. The infra is Fastly & DigitalOcean. Backend is a Django service running on DO App Platform with Postgres. Fastly is used for edge logic, captcha, geo location,…
2024 · ileantoward.com
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2019 · 2020madness.com
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Hi HN! We partnered with the Atlas team to build a tool called AI Predict [0] that allows anyone to ask any question about the future and get a thoroughly researched, AI-generated prediction on how likely it is to be true. How it works: Atlas replicated a Berkeley paper [1] that showed LLMs could make predictions as accurate as the crowd. We’re using a mix of models from OpenAI and Anthropic, with information retrieval powered by NewsCatcher [2]. The system is live and fully functional, though it might struggle with hyper-local questions outside of the public domain (e.g., “Will I have…
2024 · aipredict.fun
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Hi HN! I built this after seeing several references to Election Truth Alliance on social media, and after reading their analysis, I just couldn't get the problems I saw in it out of my head. So I downloaded the data, and rebuilt their full analysis from scratch. Their critical error is a simple misunderstanding of the Law of Large Numbers: values collected in large samples converge to the true probability in the sample distribution. (not to be confused with the Law of Very Large Numbers: which states that unlikely things happen given enough time. That confused me too) Technical Details: - No…
2025 · sullivan.zip
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I recently launched my first web app, polls.io. It's a super simple polling app that doesn't require sign-up. In my opinion, this is the most simple/social polling app out there. There are certainly many similar apps out there, but I think this one stands out as it straight-forward and doesn't have any unnecessary "mess" getting in the way of the actual poll. From idea to inception this took about a week. I'm pretty happy with how it turned out. We'll be listening to feedback in the coming days/weeks in order to make the proper changes. I'd love to hear your guys' thoughts and feedback!…
2012
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I built a web page that aggregates data about data center buildup, sovereign fund investments into AI and bottlenecks. The objective is to predict AI race cooldown by looking at a potential decrease of activity involving these elements. The website looks at the quarterly forms from the 5 biggest hyperscalers and adds their CapEx into the mix, calculating a composite index in the end showing how likely it is for the AI race to slow down. Enjoy!
Jul 2026 · laurentiugabriel.github.io
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2023 · electiongpt.ai
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2017 · polltab.com
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2016 · medium.com
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Hey HN! I RL-tuned an open-source LLM (gpt-oss-120b — 120B MoE, but only 5.1B active params) to predict "What will Trump do?" in any situation, trained on nothing but public news collected automatically from search queries. The trained model beats GPT-5, and both dataset and trained model are open sourced. Data generation: Generated 2,108 binary forecasting questions from just a search query and a date range using the Lightning Rod SDK (https://github.com/lightning-rod-labs/lightningrod-python-sd...). Questions are generated from historic news articles — like "Will Trump…
Feb 2026 · huggingface.co
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Hey HN - my friend and I built Prediction Hunt, a site that aggregates data from prediction markets like Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt into one simple dashboard. It updates every few minutes, shows probabilities for each event, and even highlights arbitrage opportunities when markets disagree. I made it after getting tired of flipping between tabs just to see how each market was pricing the same question. Would love feedback on the product, data accuracy, and any ideas for what you'd want to see next.
Oct 2025 · predictionhunt.com
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