AI · alternatives · 2026
24 alternatives to The Probability Times
Hey HN! The idea for this started when I came across the election forecast of FiveThirthyEight [1]. They show a 1000 different possible election outcomes - each one possible. In this newspaper homepage, I try to turn these simulations into reality by feeding AI with as much detailed information about a simulation as I can (e.g. voting results per state). See source code here [2]. The whole process is explained in more depth in my blog post: https://nerology.substack.com/p/how-i-made-the-probability-t... [1]…
The Probability Times is a newspaper homepage that visualizes election forecast simulations using AI. It takes probabilistic election scenarios—such as those from FiveThirtyEight's forecasts—and generates realistic… Below are 24 products that do a similar job, ranked by how close each is in meaning and then by launch-day votes. The Probability Times launched in 2024; newer entries below may have overtaken it.
- 1
Bringing (uncertain) certainty to politics
2019 · willthishappen.com · its alternatives →
- 2
- 3
Votecastr▲108Unprecedented real-time US election voting data
2016 · votecastr.us · its alternatives →
- 4
Create debates between different personas with any LLM
2024 · its alternatives →
- 5
- 6PT
In 2008, I did some calculations to estimate the probability of Obama or McCain winning the election, using state poll results, and plotted the probabilities vs time, right up to the election. The results were quite interesting. So, this year, I'm doing the same for the 2012 elections, and have put it all up on: http://prespredict.com I include both 2012 and 2008 results, and make an attempt to see how they correlate with campaign events and national news stories. There is also a section where I describe the methodology. Let me know what you think [P.S. I used bootstrap to get the site up…
2012 · prespredict.com · its alternatives →
- 7
Hi HN! Excited to show off the project we've been working on for the last couple months. We started with an idea for a crazy twist on prediction markets: You come up with a question for traders to predict, and then decide the outcome yourself. For example, you could create a market on “Will my date with [X] go well?” Anyone can bet on it, and the bets create a forecast on the chance your date goes well. After the date is over, you get to judge the result and reward the traders who picked the correct side. There are so many ways for this mechanism to go wrong: the creator of the market can be…
2022 · manifold.markets · its alternatives →
- 8AL
Hi HN! We partnered with the Atlas team to build a tool called AI Predict [0] that allows anyone to ask any question about the future and get a thoroughly researched, AI-generated prediction on how likely it is to be true. How it works: Atlas replicated a Berkeley paper [1] that showed LLMs could make predictions as accurate as the crowd. We’re using a mix of models from OpenAI and Anthropic, with information retrieval powered by NewsCatcher [2]. The system is live and fully functional, though it might struggle with hyper-local questions outside of the public domain (e.g., “Will I have…
2024 · aipredict.fun · its alternatives →
- 9
Transform your favorite sources into news articles with AI
2025 · its alternatives →
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- 11PV
2014 · poll.lab.io · its alternatives →
- 12TT
Simulate anything on a map from a text prompt -- and conduct risk analysis against LiveUA map's global realtime data points from social media and news sources. I trained a GPT-2-size model on historical incident data used to predict things that will go wrong. As historian Benjamin Breen mentions, the leading language models are good historians, so the application will simulate historical events pretty well also. I include a Multi-Agent RL Urban Mobility model in progress displayed on the map as small white cubes representing traffic and pedestrians. Around SF, it uses real census data and…
2025 · mused.com · its alternatives →
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- 14
We have created a website that summarizes AI/ML news and social discussions, aiming to deliver clarity and value with every word.
2024 · news.lambdalabs.com · its alternatives →
- 15
- 16IB
Hi HN! I built a proof of concept 'newspaper' that creates short news articles of today's current events with GPT. This is a very rough proof of concept but I can't help but think this concept is the future. I think we'll all have AI daily newspapers in whatever theme we want, covering any amount of information we want, with the ability to expand or contract article length instantly. Sharing just to get everyone thinking about this future. Thanks for reading!
2023 · thegordonpost.com · its alternatives →
- 17NA
2023 · notyet.news · its alternatives →
- 18
Construisons ensemble un tableau de bord de données neutres et vérifiables
2022 · lafrance.enchiffres.fr · its alternatives →
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- 20
real-time election stats at your fingertips
2024 · apps.apple.com · its alternatives →
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- 22
Hi HN! I built this after seeing several references to Election Truth Alliance on social media, and after reading their analysis, I just couldn't get the problems I saw in it out of my head. So I downloaded the data, and rebuilt their full analysis from scratch. Their critical error is a simple misunderstanding of the Law of Large Numbers: values collected in large samples converge to the true probability in the sample distribution. (not to be confused with the Law of Very Large Numbers: which states that unlikely things happen given enough time. That confused me too) Technical Details: - No…
2025 · sullivan.zip · its alternatives →
- 23PP
2018 · polltime.co · its alternatives →
- 24
I was curious what AI generated news would look like. The Synthetic Standard finds real news and then generatively writes articles as well as images. One of my favorite things so far has been the images: often times they are hilarious depictions similar to a political cartoon.
2023 · syntheticstandard.com · its alternatives →
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Ranked by how close each launch is in meaning, then by votes. Prices were read from each product’s own site when checked and can change. Refine with your own description →