The Probability Times
Hey HN! The idea for this started when I came across the election forecast of FiveThirthyEight [1]. They show a 1000 different possible election outcomes - each one possible. In this newspaper homepage, I try to turn these simulations into reality by feeding AI with as much detailed information about a simulation as I can (e.g. voting results per state). See source code here [2]. The whole process is explained in more depth in my blog post: https://nerology.substack.com/p/how-i-made-the-probability-t... [1]…
The Probability Times launched on October 29, 2024 with 20 votes, #849 of 5,185 launches that month and more than 75% of that year's launches.
In plain words
The Probability Times is a newspaper homepage that visualizes election forecast simulations using AI. It takes probabilistic election scenarios—such as those from FiveThirtyEight's forecasts—and generates realistic newspaper front pages for each possible outcome by feeding AI detailed simulation data including state-by-state voting results. The tool is designed for people interested in exploring how different election scenarios might be covered in the news.
written from the facts on this page · September 2026
From the sources
In the maker’s words, at launch
Hey HN! The idea for this started when I came across the election forecast of FiveThirthyEight [1]. They show a 1000 different possible election outcomes - each one possible. In this newspaper homepage, I try to turn these simulations into reality by feeding AI with as much detailed information about a simulation as…
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