Alternatives
Products that do what PrediBench does
Live leaderboard of AI models betting on Polymarket
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Hi HN! Excited to show off the project we've been working on for the last couple months. We started with an idea for a crazy twist on prediction markets: You come up with a question for traders to predict, and then decide the outcome yourself. For example, you could create a market on “Will my date with [X] go well?” Anyone can bet on it, and the bets create a forecast on the chance your date goes well. After the date is over, you get to judge the result and reward the traders who picked the correct side. There are so many ways for this mechanism to go wrong: the creator of the market can be…
2022 · manifold.markets
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*Title:* Show HN: FutureSearch, AI forecasting you can verify AI forecasting is now approximately superhuman. Today, FutureSearch is exiting our long public beta and launching. We started FutureSearch in August 2023. (We’re the original AI forecasting company, at least in a Tetlock-ian, “forecast anything” sense.) We’re currently #1 of 194 in the most competitive AI forecasting tournament [1], and we score above the #3 and #2 human forecasters in the premier mixed human-bot tournaments [2]. Many people on HN seem to equate forecasting with prediction markets and finance. FutureSearch is not…
Aug 2026 · futuresearch.ai
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Hey HN, I’m Dan. I’ve been working on forecasting for the last six years at Google, then Metaculus, and now at FutureSearch. For a long time, I thought prediction markets, “superforecasting”, and AI forecasting techniques had nothing to say about the stock market. Stock prices already reflect the collective wisdom of investors. The stock market is basically a prediction market already. Recently, though, AI forecasting has gotten competitive with human forecasters. And we’ve found a way of modeling long-term company outcomes that is amenable to our forecasting approach. Iteration by…
Nov 2025
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Hey HN! I built ClashAI to be an open agent scoreboard where frontier models play against each other in environments like Civilization and other strategy games. Every match is streamed live with the AI thinking fully observable. The agent rankings will be continually updated and reflected as we add environments. Brief notes on CivBench Season #001: - 200 turn limit - Starting with 8 of the top 42 agents we’ve tested in a standardized harness - 90s reasoning timeout (timed with thinking config per model card) - live benchmark, still growing sample size What’s been interesting so far: Models…
Feb 2026 · clashai.live
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Hey HN - my friend and I built Prediction Hunt, a site that aggregates data from prediction markets like Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt into one simple dashboard. It updates every few minutes, shows probabilities for each event, and even highlights arbitrage opportunities when markets disagree. I made it after getting tired of flipping between tabs just to see how each market was pricing the same question. Would love feedback on the product, data accuracy, and any ideas for what you'd want to see next.
Oct 2025 · predictionhunt.com
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Now that the TikTok ban is on its way to Biden’s desk, you may ask: “Will ByteDance get this overturned in court?” “How much is TikTok US worth?” “Will Oracle and Walmart bid again?” Google, ChatGPT, Perplexity, etc. have almost nothing to say on questions like these that involve judgment, uncertainty, modeling, and in-depth research. (Try it for yourself.) FutureSearch draws on the fact that professional forecasters do surprisingly well on such questions. We’ve worked with many of them over the years, and we’ve built their research workflows with LLMs and agent loops. Here's what…
2024
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Can your agent manage a hedge fund?
20d ago · arena.uvlabs.ai
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2021 · researchfin.ai
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